For a while I’ve been sounding the alarm of an impending major crisis which may hit by the year 2020. Based on reports by experts and some analysts, I reasons to predict the next crisis will be more catastrophic than the one in 2008. Comparable to the one, and most likely, the crisis will last longer, with impact on economies, resulting in bankruptcies and causing stagflation and will start in the US. Nations around the world have lost confidence to lead to problems of trade, finance, diplomacy and warfare. These countries are dismantling the cooperation with the US, developing rather an alternate system of trade.
To other currencies, the US dollar was losing ground for some years in addition. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney announced in January 2019. Likewise based on Alfred McCoy, historian and professor of history at the University of Wisconsin, the meltdown of the dollar will mean soaring costs, ever rising unemployment and a continuous decline in real wages through the 2020 therefore, national branches widen into violent clashes and divisive disagreements, often over emblematic, insubstantial issues. It’s no real surprise, therefore, that whenever asked about a possible repetition of the 2008 crisis, ex British Prime Minister Gordon Brown stated:
We’re in danger of sleepwalking in a future crisis there’s going to have to be a serious awakening to the escalation of risks, but we’re in a leaderless world cooperation which was seen in 2008 wouldn’t be possible in a post-2018 crisis, both with regards to central banks and governments working together.
We’d have a blame sharing exercise as opposed to solving the problem. Therefore, my prediction is that 2020 will produce an unparalleled global financial and political crisis. In the meantime, Brazil, Russia, India, China and Korea will grow at a steady rate throughout the next 10 years. The evolving bilateral technological, trade, economic, IP rights, political and military battles will culminate into a real confrontation worldwide. The crisis and emerging battles will lead to the 3rd world warfare between the US and China. The United States and China will meet to end the war, as all wars end with agreements.
A brand new world order regulated by the G-2 will emerge. The Arab region will witness a renaissance which will herald a Global Marshal like financial plan resulting in a global economic recovery and prosperity. Based on the above, my best advice is to prepare for an economic downturn, even when it might not happen. The focus should be on the drivers of long-term and not short term symptomatic measures, initiating action as opposed to just reacting to developments as they come. The writer is President of Talal Abu Ghazaleh Organization.